Brazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s polling lead over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed to less than 5 percentage points, according to a new opinion survey published on Thursday by pollster AtlasIntel.
In its first poll since the first-round vote on Oct. 2, pollster AtlasIntel found 51.1% of voters for Lula and 46.5% behind Bolsonaro. Excluding undecided voters and null votes, Lula has 52.4% support and Bolsonaro 47.6%.
In the first round of the polarized presidential election, with an initial field of nine candidates, Lula won 48% of the votes against 43% for Bolsonaro, setting the terrain for an unexpectedly competitive runoff on Oct. 30.
“The snapshot from this survey shows a more difficult fight for Lula than appeared at first, but with a certain advantage setting in for Lula that will be difficult to overcome,” said Andrei Roman, chief executive of AtlasIntel.
AtlasIntel was one of several polling firms criticized for underestimating support for Bolsonaro in the first round, although it was closer than several more traditional pollsters. AtlasIntel had registered a 9-point lead for Lula ahead of that vote, when in fact the difference was just 5 points.
Thursday’s poll showed that 53.3% of Brazilian voters disapprove of Bolsonaro’s performance as president, versus 44.2% that approve of his way of governing Brazil, improving significantly from March, when 65% disapproved and 33% approved.
Bolsonaro needs to gain 6 million additional votes to win re-election, while Lula needs 1.2 million to get elected in what would be a third term for the former president who served from 2003-2010.
AtlasIntel interviewed 4,500 voters nationwide that were recruited randomly over the Internet, between Oct 8-12. The poll has a margin of error on 1 percentage point.
