Ghana faces yet another milestone in its democratic journey in December 2024, as the country heads to the polls to elect a new President and parliamentarians for the 275-member legislative chamber. This is the 9th successive general election since the country returned to democratic rule in 1992, with remarkable success translating into orderly transitions of power between the two main political parties, the ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC). With President Nana Akuffo Addo expected to hand over after successfully completing his full two-term tenure, the election will affirm Ghana’s credentials as one of Africa’s model democracies. Nonetheless, the election takes place in a restive atmosphere of military coups across the neighboring West African sub-region, while internally, a growing tide of urban protests and an overall crisis in the Ghanaian economy continues to deepen unemployment and poverty across broad sections of the populace. The government’s adoption of another IMF austerity program has cast a worrying spotlight on the frailties of Ghana’s democratic experiment. Adding to these concerns about the health of the country’s democracy is a decline in public confidence in the Electoral Commission, which is at an all-time low at 33 percent according to the 2022 Afrobarometer survey,1 while the courts have been saddled by a growing public perception of partisan bias.2
A total of 12 candidates, including 4 presidential candidates, will be vying for the votes to secure President Nana Addo’s successor, although only the two candidates of the NPP or NDC have a realistic pathway to victory. The campaigns have thus far pitted the sitting vice president, Alhaji Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who is the presidential candidate of the NPP against John Dramani Mahama, a former president who is leading the opposition NDC for his 4th consecutive attempt at being re-elected to the office of president. John Mahama’s victory will be a remarkable comeback for the former Head of State who lost in the past two general elections, although critics have pointed to the mixed record of his administration and the uncertainty that could mark the lame-duck nature of his next tenure given that he will not be eligible to stand again at the next general election. For the sitting Vice President, while his election as the first Muslim to lead a major party and policy-laden rhetoric have lifted the NPP’s campaign, he has struggled to advance an uplifting pitch given the sorry state of the Ghanaian economy. Nonetheless, the outcome of the vote should be viewed as the most formidable gauge of the pulse of democratic governance in Ghana.
The Opposition Has Framed the Election on Cost of Living
Barely a year ago, the odds were in favor of the NDC and John Mahama to win the election. An unwritten rule over the past election affirms this outcome as no incumbent political party has secured electoral victory after serving eight years in government. Also, unlike the bitter primaries that later characterized the NPP’s primary to elect Nana Addo’s successor as leader of the NPP, John Mahama’s fourth shot at the presidential election received a resounding backing of 98.9 percent of the party’s delegates during its May 2024 internal primary.3
The daunting challenge for the ruling party was compounded by various factors that followed President Nana Akufo Addo’s surprisingly narrow re-election during the 2020 election, which saw a 50-50 split with the NDC in the share of Members of the Ghanaian Parliament. While the hung parliament scenario hamstrung the President’s policy agenda, an acute economic crisis (which peaked in 2022 with a record 54 percent inflation), depreciation in the local currency, and questions about his government’s poor anti-corruption commitments (that led to mounting protests) raised the specter of defeat for the incumbent NPP government. The NPP’s popularity also took a bigger hit with several unpopular economic interventions, including a domestic debt exchange program that replaced high-yielding bonds with low-yielding, long-term maturities, and a slew of new taxes like the 1.5% e-levy on electronic financial payment in 2022 and five tax bills in 2023 that were largely aimed at boosting the country’s revenue.
The opposition NDC has quickly moved to cash in on the economic crisis by framing the election largely on the bread-and-butter issues of the deteriorating living conditions of average Ghanaians. In January 2023, for instance, the party took a dramatic step by replacing the rather astute leader of its parliamentary caucus, Haruna Iddrissu, with Cassiel Ato Forson, an MP from the Central Region and a financial economist who was deemed by the party’s hierarchy as their most potent force to make the economic case for the party’s re-election.
On the campaign trail, Mahama has vowed to lead Ghana “out of the current abyss” and has pledged to scrap four of the NPP government’s taxes – the e-levy, COVID levy, 10% levy on bet winning, and emissions levy – in the first 100 days in office. His party’s manifesto also promises to tackle the economic crisis by boosting productivity and jobs through a 24-hour Economy that will support businesses and public agencies to operate 24/7 in three shifts of eight hours, a specialized bank for women-owned business, and a “Big Push” for infrastructural development.4
The Fading Certainty of a John Mahama Victory
The certainty of a Mahama victory has, however, been undermined by the election of the sitting Vice President as the NPP’s flagbearer. Alhaji Bawumia received less than 61 percent of the votes in the party’s November 2023 primary, after a protracted and divisive process that led a former trade minister of the Akuffo Addo government to run as an independent candidate. Nonetheless, as the first Muslim to lead one of the two major political parties, Bawumia’s election as the party’s presidential candidate has galvanized the rank-and-file of the NPP, and threatened to split the ethno-regional block across settler communities in the South and groups in Northern parts of the country that have traditionally voted en-masse for the NDC. Bawumia’s campaign strategy has therefore pivoted on widening the base of the NPP support among the Muslim community, while counting on the mass showing of NPP electorates in regions across the middle and southern belts.
The Vice President and the NPP government have also sought to seize the momentum on recent economic gains and the successes of a nation-wide digitalization program to upset a potential NDC victory. Indeed, the woes of the economy invariably dented Alhaji Bawumia, who has built his political credentials as a smart and tech-savvy economist. Hence, various analysts and members of the opposition pointed out the contrasts between his past public lectures on the economy and policy failings of the economic management team that he led as Vice President.
The Vice President’s policy stock has risen as the economy records some modest gains over the past year, especially since the government received a US$3 billion IMF stimulus package. For instance, the pace of the fall of the exchange rate slowed from 60 percent in 2022 to 17 percent in 2023, along with a substantial drop in the fiscal deficit and public debt.5 his rather positive economic outlook has enabled the NPP government to sustain some social intervention programs, such as the Free Senior High School and restoration of allowances for teacher and nurse trainees, and underwrite some major infrastructural projects. The Vice President has also attracted some praise for overseeing a major lift in Ghana’s digitalization drive that has transformed critical sectors like FinTech, mobile money, and national identification. While the overall economic outlook remains largely uncertain, the early signs of recovery has provided the NPP and Alhaji Bawumia with some much-needed reprieve during the campaign. In fact, the party’s communication team has often contrasted these improvements with what they consider as ex-President Mahama’s equally dismal economic performance under the NDC government’s last tenure. The Vice President’s penchant for policy-flavored rhetoric has also birthed several promises such as a flat rate tax system and harnessing the inroads on digitalization to develop a unified Universal Social Assistance System, which have added to his reputation as a savvy technocrat.
Will the ties bind?
As Ghana’s 2024 general election draws near, there is an open question as to how Ghana’s electoral democracy will secure the wins needed to uplift the economic plight of every citizen, and other core issues that continue fuel public anger against the ruling elite.
As captured in the latest round of the Afrobarometer survey, almost 90 percent of Ghanaians think that the country is heading in the wrong direction, while about 80 percent stated that corruption has increased. Yet, for most Ghanaians, free and fair elections constitute the gold standard for choosing the country’s leaders. Over the past election cycles, a vigilant media and well-organized civil society, led by the National Peace Council, working with the Electoral Commission have proven critical for securing the buy-in of critical stakeholders.
While reiterating the rather low public confidence in the electoral commission and the judiciary, a recent peace pact that was signed by all the political parties and presidential candidates offers a greater sense of hope that Ghana will emerge out of the election with its reputation as a model democracy intact. Over the past months, for instance, the Electoral Commission has initiated some notable changes, including a revival in the Inter-Party Advisory Committee (IPAC) to sanitize the voters’ register.
Although it is uncertain who the eventual winner of the election will be, past trends suggest a possibility of a close race for control of either the Presidency or Ghanaian parliament. A closely fought outcome is likely to attract deeper scrutiny of the results, setting the stage for the courts to adjudicate various electoral disputes. While this scenario reflects a growing trend in the judicialization of electoral politics in Ghana, recent questions about the impartiality of the judiciary remains the most formidable obstacle to a peaceful outcome. Nonetheless, one can hope that the well-nurtured traits of inter-party dialogue, and the added pressure on the Electoral Commission from civil society and various political parties, will overcome the dark instincts of democratic backsliding as recorded across the sub-region.
Endnotes
- Afrobarometer. 2024. Ghanaians Want Fair and Competitive Elections but Mistrust the Electoral Commission. March 6, 2024. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://www.afrobarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/AD781-Ghanaians-want-fair-elections-but-mistrust-electoral-commission-Afrobarometer-6march24.pdf.
- Center for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana). 2022. Partisanship and Trust in Our Courts: Insights from the Afrobarometer Survey. April 2022. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://cddgh.org/2022/04/partisanship-and-trust-in-our-courts-insights-from-the-afrobarometer-survey/; MyJoyOnline. 2024. National Security Minister Worried About Dwindling Trust in Judicial System. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://www.myjoyonline.com/national-security-minister-worried-about-dwindling-trust-in-judicial-system/.
- Ghana News Agency (GNA). 2023. NDC Chooses Mahama as Flagbearer for the 2024 Race. May 2023. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://gna.org.gh/2023/05/ndc-chooses-mahama-as-flagbearer-for-the-2024-race/.
- National Democratic Congress (NDC). 2024. Resetting Ghana: Jobs, Accountability, Prosperity. 2024 NDC Manifesto. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://cdn.modernghana.com/files/912024122209-k5fri7t2h0-resetting-ghana-ndc-manifesto-2024—full-text-1.pdf.
- African Development Bank (AfDB). 2024. Ghana Economic Outlook. Accessed November 25, 2024. https://www.afdb.org/en/countries/west-africa/ghana/ghana-economic-outlook.
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