Insecurity fears have gripped the Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as the country prepares for upcoming elections.
The volatile region, known for its ongoing conflict and unrest, is experiencing heightened tensions and concerns regarding potential violence surrounding the electoral process.
The DRC is set to hold presidential, parliamentary, and provincial elections in January 2023. However, there are growing apprehensions about the security situation in the eastern part of the country, where numerous armed groups operate and an array of complex conflicts persist.
Several factors contribute to the prevailing insecurity concerns. Disputes over land, natural resources, ethnic rivalries, and political power have fueled violence in the region for years. Additionally, many armed groups continue to operate, engaging in human rights abuses, illicit activities, and clashes with government forces, exacerbating the fragile security environment.
Leaders of the Southern Africa Development Corporation (SADC) are expected to gather in the Angolan capital, Luanda, with the top agenda being the security situation in the DRC.
SADC had earlier agreed to deploy some 500 complementary troops to the DRC to support the existing East African Community Regional Force (EACRF). But the southern African bloc had dragged feet as it assessed the situation.
If the Angola meeting decides to provide definite dates for actual deployment, that will provide some respite for the eastern DRC, but it may not resolve the problem as armed groups resume violence that has already displaced thousands of people from their homes.
Yet that is not the only headache, it seems. With less than two months to go, the International Crisis Group fears that if the elections are managed “without consensus”, there will be a risk of violence.
It says planning for the vote without consensus in
the electoral process “could increase the risks of contestation of the ballot and related violence.”
“This could be detrimental to the country’s stability,” reads the report Elections in the DRC, Limiting the risk of violence,” published on October 30.
President Felix Tshisekedi is facing up to 20 candidates, although the actual number will be known after the Constitutional Court validates the contestants on November 18.
Usually, the DRC’s election preparations have been fraught with risks, including postponement, as it happened in the past. But as the country strives to transit to regular elections, a dispute over the vote could spark violence, and it doesn’t help that the eastern DRC is full of armed groups who could ride on the grievances to resume war.
“To mitigate these risks, the government should ensure that all parties can campaign freely, and African and Western powers should encourage the parties to find compromises and be prepared to mediate if necessary,” wrote the International Crisis Group.
Some of the competing candidates have already expressed fears the playing field is not level. Early signs show the battle could at least be fought in court between candidates. On Monday, Constitutional Court, the highest jurisdiction in the DRC, rejected the application lodged by a presidential candidate, Noël Tshiani, who had lodged a complaint against another candidate, Moïse Katumbi over his parentage that he argued made Katumbi unqualified to be Congolese.
Yet the electoral campaign promises to be very turbulent. The ICG believes that “the risk of localised violence is high. A close or disputed presidential result could also lead to a national crisis, as was the case in 2018.” And this is largely due to both the high contest between candidates and the charged electorate. In 2018, Tshisekedi surprised frontrunners Martin Fayulu and Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary to win the vote.
But he was forced into an early coalition with the party of then-departing President Joseph Kabila to help stabilise parliament. The coalition lasted a year before it broke down on accusations of unmet coalition promises.
