The World Bank has projected that Nigeria’s economy would slow to 2.9% in 2023, and remain on that thread till 2024.
This projection is based on the country’s weak oil performance, and was detailed in the Bank’s 2023 Global Economic Prospects report.
Issues like insecurity, external factors and moderation in oil prices are expected to stifle the performance of Nigeria’s most lucrative sector.
“Existing production, security challenges, and moderation in oil prices are expected to hinder a recovery in oil output. Policy uncertainty sustained high inflation, and rising incidence of violence is anticipated to temper growth. The fiscal position is expected to remain weak because of high borrowing costs, lower energy prices, sluggish growth of oil production, and subdued activity in the non-oil sectors.” The Bank warned.
However, Nigeria’s insistence to refine its own oil could be key to mitigating this despondent forecast, particularly at the mid-point of the year, when such initiatives have been slated to be up and running.
Additionally, the Bank reported a global economic outlook that seems consistent with the economic recession that has been touted by several economists since the last quarter of 2022.
According to the bank, “the global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn in growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.”
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the bank’s narrative is even more alarming as the World Bank forecasts an even more distressing picture than it did the global economy. “In Sub-Saharan Africa which accounts for about 60% of the world’s extreme poor growth in per capita income over 2023-24 is expected to average just 1.2%, a rate that could cause poverty rates to rise, not fall.” The bank disclosed.
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