The Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives, a think tank in the United Kingdom, is predicting a landslide victory for Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia in this weekend’s Special Delegates Conference of the NPP.
Specially selected delegates of the ruling NPP goes to the poll this Saturday, August 26, to select five people out of the 10 who have filed to be elected flagbearer of the party in the main Congress in November.
The Centre for Sustainable African Development Initiatives’ survey, which targeted special delegates across the country, tips Vice President Bawumia to win over 70% of the votes, with the rest earning paltry percentages amongst them.
Acording to results of the poll, Dr. Bawumia will win the Super Delegates with a landslide 72.6%, while his closest challenger, Alan Kyerematen will place second with 7.7%.
Controversial legislator, Kennedy Agyepong is expected to place 3rd with 4.3% while the party’s former General Secretary, Kwabena Agyepong is tipped to get 1.3%. Former Agric Minister Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto is also tipped to be among the top 5 who will be selected with a paltry 0.6%.
The report, however gives hope to the rest, as a significant 13% of respondents were undecided at the time of the poll. What this means is that the 13% can spread to all, and if trend analysis were to be applied, then it is likely Dr. Bawumia will extend his commanding percentage lead.
According to the survey, the main bases for assessing candidates by delegates were; the vision of the candidate for the party and country, as well as the competence of the candidate.
Among the research questions the delegates were asked were; who are the top 5 candidates to be elected by the delegates of NPP’s special electoral college? On what basis do delegates assess a candidate for the NPP flagbearer position?
The quantitative research design was adopted for this study The target population consists of all NPP delegates of the special electoral college, which is estimated to be about 1,000 people The study used multistage probability proportional to size sampling (PPS) with implicit stratification to reduce the operational cost of the survey and better represent the country Data was obtained mainly through computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology The minimum sample size was determined to be 278 special delegates based on a 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error In our effort to increase precision, we enlarged the actual sample size to 300 delegates and successfully interviewed all 300 delegates, yielding a response rate of 100%.
A sample size of 300 NPP special delegates nationwide, from the population size of 961 to special delegates voters, was used for the survey.
The breakdown of the sample size across the regions are as follows:
Upper West 11, Upper East 17, North East 15, Northern 19, Savannah 17, Bono East 19, Bono 14, Ahafo 11, Ashanti 36, Eastern 29, Greater Accra 29 , Central 19, Western 19, Western North 15, Oti 11, Volta 19.
Respondents, who form the NPP electoral college for the special delegates were: constituency chairpersons 143, regional executive members 103, member of parliament 33, council of elders 9, national council members 8, card bearing ministers 3, and former national officers 1.